AI Overviews Traffic Loss Calculator

Everything is calculated in your browser, starting from your own non-branded clicks. Those clicks are already reduced by any AI Overviews, so the calculator works backwards to the clicks you'd get without them. It doesn't apply an outside click-through-rate curve to your traffic: only the reduction in click-through rate comes from studies.

• C is your current non-branded clicks per month in a position bucket (#1, #2, #3, #4–5, #6–10).
• a is the share of your impressions on queries that show an AI Overview today; b is the scenario share.
• d is how much lower the click-through rate is on a results page with an AI Overview than on one without, at the same position. Each bucket has a low and a high value.

The model: CTR with an AI Overview = (1 − d) × CTR without one, with impressions split a : (1 − a).

Clicks with no AI Overviews = C ÷ (1 − a × d)

Clicks lost today = C × a × d ÷ (1 − a × d)

Extra clicks at risk if the share rises to b = C × (b − a) × d ÷ (1 − a × d)

Share of clicks lost = total lost ÷ (total clicks + total lost)

Totals add up the buckets twice, once with every d at its low value and once at its high value. Those two totals are the range. Value = clicks × your value per click. In quick mode, all your clicks go into the bucket you choose.

Where d comes from

• #1: AWR measured 51.6%, AWR derived 65.2%, Ahrefs 58.0%. So d runs from 51.6% to 65.2%.
• #2: AWR measured 64.4%, AWR derived 76.0%, Ahrefs 50.8%. So d runs from 50.8% to 76.0%.
• #3: AWR measured 56.3%, AWR derived 69.3%, Ahrefs 46.4%. So d runs from 46.4% to 69.3%.
• #4–5: AWR measured 17.9%, AWR derived 27.7%, Ahrefs 38.8% (#4) and 32.6% (#5). So d runs from 17.9% to 38.8%.
• #6–10: AWR measured 23.0%, AWR derived 34.4%, Ahrefs not published. So d runs from 23.0% to 34.4%.

“AWR measured” is 1 − (CTR with an AI Overview ÷ CTR on all results pages). It's conservative, because the all-pages figure already includes pages with AI Overviews. “AWR derived” is 1 − (CTR with an AI Overview ÷ CTR without one), where CTR without = (all-pages CTR − 43% × CTR with) ÷ (1 − 43%). That treats the all-pages average as a 43% : 57%mix, which is an approximation. For #4–5 and #6–10, the AWR ratios use the summed CTRs of the positions in the bucket. Ahrefs compared the same keywords in December 2023 and December 2025. Each bucket's low d is the smallest available value and its high d the largest.

Worked example (default inputs, $3.75 a click)

Inputs: clicks of 4,000 (#1), 2,000 (#2), 1,500 (#3), 1,500 (#4–5), 1,000 (#6–10); a = 43%; b = 60%; value $3.75 a click.

• #1: lost today 1,141–1,557; extra at risk at 60% 451–616.
• #2: lost today 559–971; extra at risk at 60% 221–384.
• #3: lost today 374–637; extra at risk at 60% 148–252.
• #4–5: lost today 125–300; extra at risk at 60% 50–119.
• #6–10: lost today 110–174; extra at risk at 60% 43–69.
• Total: lost today 2,309–3,639; extra at risk 913–1,439. Totals are computed before rounding, so they can differ by 1 from the sum of the rows.
• Check for #1, low: 4,000 × (43% × 51.6%) ÷ (1 − 43% × 51.6%) = 4,000 × 0.2219 ÷ 0.7781 = 1,140.5.

Displayed as:

• “AI Overviews are likely costing you about 2,300–3,600 clicks a month, or 19%–27% of the clicks you'd get without them. At $3.75 a click, that's roughly $8,660–$13,600 a month.”
• “If AI Overviews reached 60% of your impressions, about 910–1,400 more clicks a month would be at risk (about $3,420–$5,400).”