Keyword Traffic Forecast: Clicks by Ranking Position
Ranking #3 for a keyword with 5,000 monthly searches brings roughly 85–280 clicks a month, depending on whether Google shows an AI Overview. Enter your keywords, search volumes and target positions to forecast monthly clicks and extra clicks versus today, using AWR's July 2026 CTR data.
Your results
Clicks a month at #3
85–280
Extra clicks a month vs today
64–240
Today: 21–33 a month
AI Overview impact: at this target position, a results page with an AI Overview gets about 110–190 fewer clicks a month than one without, on the benchmark curve. Being cited in the AI Overview can win some of them back.
By keyword
- example keywordAI Overview: not sure
- At #3
- 85–280 clicks (CTR 1.7%–5.5%)
- Now (#8)
- 21–33 clicks
- Extra
- 64–240 clicks
NowAt #3
Bars share one scale (0–280 clicks a month). Clicks are rounded to 2 significant figures.
Your inputs are stored in the link itself, after the #. They aren't sent to our server.
Data as of July 2026: Advanced Web Ranking CTR study, Google US desktop (updated 28 September 2026, checked 29 September 2026).
How this is calculated
Everything is calculated in your browser. Each keyword's clicks are its monthly searches (V) × the click-through rate (CTR) at the position, using a low and a high CTR:
- AI Overview “Yes”: from A (measured with an AI Overview) to B (the all-pages average, which pages cited in the AI Overview can reach).
- AI Overview “No”: from B to C (derived without an AI Overview).
- “Not sure”: from A to C.
- Your own CTR, if you enter one, is used as both ends.
clicks low = V low × CTR low · clicks high = V high × CTR high
With a single search volume, V low = V high. Positions 6–10 share the mean of AWR's #6–#10 figures.
extra clicks = clicks at target − clicks now (low with low, high with high; never below 0)
A current position of #11 to #100, or not ranking, counts as 0 clicks. The totals add up every keyword that isn't marked as branded.
AI Overview impact = V low × (B − A) to V high × (C − A), at the target position
value = clicks × conversion rate × value per conversion
Where column C comes from
AWR publishes CTRs with an AI Overview (A) and across all results pages (B). Treating B as a 43 : 57 mix of pages with and without an AI Overview (43% is AWR's share of sampled desktop pages showing one in July 2026) gives the CTR without one:
C = (B − 0.43 × A) ÷ (1 − 0.43)
It's an approximation. As a sanity check, C at #1 is 27.8%, close to Backlinko's 27.6% and below AWR's mobile figure of 35.74%.
Worked example (the default inputs)
- 5,000 searches a month, target #3, AI Overview “Not sure”: 5,000 × 1.70% to 5,000 × 5.54% = 85 to 277.1, shown as 85–280 clicks a month.
- The current position, #8, uses the #6–10 mean: 21.4 to 32.6 clicks. Extra clicks = 63.6 to 244.5, shown as 64–240 a month.
- With the AI Overview state set to Yes, #3 gives 85–190 clicks. Set to No, it gives 190–280.
Assumptions & sources
The CTR curve is Advanced Web Ranking's July 2026 study of Google US desktop results, all search intents. Columns A and B are measured; column C is derived as shown above.
| Position | A: with an AI Overview | B: all results pages | C: without (derived) |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | 9.69% | 20.02% | 27.81% |
| #2 | 3.69% | 10.36% | 15.39% |
| #3 | 1.70% | 3.89% | 5.54% |
| #4 | 1.27% | 1.71% | 2.04% |
| #5 | 1.02% | 1.08% | 1.13% |
| #6–10 | 0.428% | 0.556% | 0.653% |
| Constant | Value | Source | As of |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConstantOrganic CTR by position on SERPs with an AI Overview (Google US desktop, all intents)Mean of positions #6–#10: AWR's measured #7–#10 values aren't monotonic. | Value
| SourceAdvanced Web Ranking, “Google Organic CTR by Position: 2026 Study + AI Overviews”More than 1.75 million US SERPs a month (1M desktop + 750K mobile) | As of
|
| ConstantOrganic CTR by position, all SERPs (Google US desktop, all intents)Mean of positions #6–#10: AWR's measured #7–#10 values aren't monotonic. | Value
| SourceAdvanced Web Ranking, “Google Organic CTR by Position: 2026 Study + AI Overviews”More than 1.75 million US SERPs a month (1M desktop + 750K mobile) | As of
|
| ConstantShare of sampled US desktop SERPs showing an AI OverviewDefault for the AI Overview share slider (#1) and the a in the derived no-AI-Overview CTR column (#5). Replace it with your rank tracker's SERP-feature data. | Value43% | SourceAdvanced Web Ranking, “Google Organic CTR by Position: 2026 Study + AI Overviews”More than 1.75 million US SERPs a month (1M desktop + 750K mobile) | As of
|
| ConstantPosition 1 organic CTR on mobile (Google US) | Value
| SourceAdvanced Web Ranking, “Google Organic CTR by Position: 2026 Study + AI Overviews”More than 1.75 million US SERPs a month (1M desktop + 750K mobile) | As of
|
| ConstantBranded vs unbranded organic CTR (US, all devices) | Value
| SourceAdvanced Web Ranking, “Google Organic CTR by Position: 2026 Study + AI Overviews”More than 1.75 million US SERPs a month (1M desktop + 750K mobile) | As of
|
| ConstantOrganic CTR over time on AI Overview and non-AI Overview queries; clicks when cited | Value
| SourceSeer Interactive, AI Overview impact on Google CTR (2026 update) | As of
|
| ConstantPosition 1 organic CTR (counts AI Mode)Cited as a disagreement, not used: it counts AI Mode, and its figure fell from 39.8% in its 2025 report, which suggests a definition change. | Value7.1% | SourceFirst Page Sage, Google click-through rates by ranking position (2026 report)1,184 client and panel domains; counts AI Overviews and AI Mode | As of
|
| ConstantPosition 1 organic CTR (text-verified; positions 2–10 are chart images only)Sanity check for the derived #1 CTR without an AI Overview (27.81%). The rest of the curve isn't used. | Value27.6% | SourceBacklinko, Google CTR stats | As of
|
Why AWR.CTR studies disagree widely. AWR discloses its sample (1M desktop and 750K mobile US results pages a month), is an independent vendor, refreshes monthly and publishes the AI Overview split from the same data. First Page Sage's 7.1%at #1 counts AI Mode and fell sharply from its previous report, which suggests a change of definition, so it's cited as a disagreement, not used. Backlinko publishes positions 2–10 only in chart images, so only its #1 figure is used, as a sanity check.
Why #6–10 are averaged.AWR's measured values for #7–#10 aren't monotonic (#10 beats #7), so one mean is used for all five positions.
Limits of this estimate
- Based on US desktop data for July 2026. On mobile, position 1 earned more clicks in AWR's data (35.74% vs 20.02%), so mobile-heavy keywords can beat this range at #1.
- CTR studies disagree widely. One 2026 study reports 7.1% at #1 because it counts AI Mode. If your audience uses AI Mode heavily, expect the low end or below.
- Search volumes from keyword tools are estimates. If your tool gives a range, enter both ends.
- The best benchmark is your own: in Search Console, check the CTR of similar queries at that position and enter it as your CTR.
- Column C (without an AI Overview) is derived from AWR's averages, not measured directly.
- Positions #11 to #100 count as 0 clicks. A keyword on page two does get some clicks, so its extra clicks are overstated by that amount.
Frequently asked questions
How do you estimate traffic from a keyword ranking?
Multiply the keyword's monthly searches by the click-through rate (CTR) for your position. This calculator uses Advanced Web Ranking's July 2026 study of Google US desktop results, where position 1 earned 20.02% of clicks across all results pages. It shows a range rather than one number, because the CTR depends on whether the page shows an AI Overview.
How much does an AI Overview reduce clicks?
In AWR's July 2026 data, position 1 earned 9.69% CTR on results pages with an AI Overview, against 20.02% across all results pages. Removing the AI Overview pages from that average gives about 27.8% without one. At position 3 the figures are 1.70%, 3.89% and about 5.5%.
What click-through rate does position 1 get in 2026?
It depends on the study and the device. AWR measured 20.02% on US desktop and 35.74% on US mobile in July 2026. First Page Sage reports only 7.1%, but it counts Google's AI Mode too. Backlinko's figure is 27.6%. This calculator uses AWR because it publishes its sample, refreshes monthly and splits the data by AI Overview.
Why does ranking below position 10 count as zero clicks?
The CTR data used here covers page one only (positions 1 to 10), so there's no sourced figure beyond it. A current position of #11 to #100, or not ranking at all, counts as 0 clicks, and all of the traffic at your target position shows up as extra clicks. If you already get some clicks from page two, the extra clicks are overstated by that amount.
Should I include branded keywords?
No. People searching for your brand click much more often: in AWR's July 2026 data, branded keywords averaged 27.3% CTR at position 1 against 19.4% for unbranded ones, and 4.0% against 0.8% at position 10. Tick "branded" and the row is left out of the totals.
How can I make the forecast more accurate?
Use your own data. In Google Search Console, find the CTR of similar queries where you already rank at the target position and enter it as your CTR. If your keyword tool gives a range of monthly searches, enter both ends. Mark each results page as having an AI Overview or not after checking it yourself.
Next step
See which of your target keywords show AI Overviews, and whether you're cited.
Get a free GEO auditBy Malhar Shah, Founder & SEO Strategist at Vidern. Updated .